Foresura - forecast-based insurance for anticipatory action

AI Quick Summary

Foresura is building a scalable climate-fintech solution that transforms high-resolution weather forecasts into sector-specific anticipatory insurance products. By leveraging forecast-triggered financial instruments, we empower proactive risk reduction across underinsured sectors like agriculture, infrastructure, and transport. Our platform bridges the gap between climate intelligence and finance, turning resilience into a standardised, insurable, and investable data-driven product. With support from the Innovation Booster Sustainable Digital Finance, we aim to validate our MVP, co-develop use cases with insurers and public actors, and unlock a new asset class for sustainable risk financing. Problem: Disaster Compensation Is Costly and InefficientThe increasing frequency and severity of climate-related disasters demand a shift from reactive crisis response to proactive risk mitigation. Rising costs from disaster-related payouts are putting pressure on insurers and increasing premiums for clients. Insurers would profit from their clients engaging in damage-reducing preventive measures, but for the latter, this may not always pay off: Anticipatory action always has a cost in money and time for the customer, but since weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, those resources may simply be spent in vain. Without a strong financial mechanism to enable concrete anticipatory action and to distribute the risk of spending in vain from the individual to a larger system, inaction often prevails—leading to avoidable damages, irreplaceable losses, and greater overall costs, negatively affecting both the insurance industry and the end-customers in many crucial economic sectors on the long run. Our Solution: Financially Enabling Anticipatory ActionForesura pioneers a new business opportunity for insurers: enabling financially-backed, anticipatory action in key economic sectors such as agriculture, transport, construction, and leisure, based on short to medium lead-time weather forecasts. By expanding parametric insurance logic, forecast-based weather triggers can activate predefined preventive measures—such as hail protection nets, mobile flood barriers, evacuations, or securing infrastructure— days to hours before a disaster occurs.This approach is not only more cost-effective and sustainable than post-event compensation, but also essential for protecting lives, business continuity, and livelihoods—losses that cannot be recovered with money.Innovation: A Forecast-to-Action Financial PlatformForesura is developing a modular, scalable platform that transforms uncertain weather forecasts into real-time actionable decision triggers and pre-disaster financial instruments. This involves quantifying sector-specific risk trade-offs to identify most suitable anticipatory actions, translating uncertain meteorological data into concrete triggers for actions, and developing the corresponding forecast-triggered financial instruments—such as anticipatory insurance—which fund action before disaster strikes. While anticipatory financing has shown success in humanitarian contexts, it remains almost absent in commercial, operational, and public-sector settings. Indeed, insurance and other businesses have so far focused on high-cost adaptation measures such as updating buildings to be disaster-resistant, while ignoring the opportunities of short-term anticipatory action.By linking skilful forecasts with tailored, financially-backed response action plans, Foresura makes resilience a market-ready concept—bridging a critical gap in risk management and climate adaptation.Scientific Basis & Processing Core Implementation Foresura builds on cutting-edge risk research from ETH Zurich and with this, latest state-of-the-art tools such as the open-source climate risk modeling platform CLIMADA. We combine the newest market-available high-resolution weather forecast data with sector-specific risk data and bespoke action plans in agriculture, transportation, construction, and leisure —turning forecasts into financially-backed, actionable triggers.What sets us apart is the translation from science into application: we have already developed a first functional prototype, defined use cases with insurers and stakeholders in some of our target economic sectors, and validated initial needs through interviews.Our work is backed by a strong academic-public-practitioner network which endorses our project such as the Weather & Climate risks chair at ETH Zurich, CGIAR (global research partnership for a food-secure future), and the United Nations University (anticipatory action expertise).Foresura stands on a solid scientific foundation—but we are already building forward, towards market-ready impact.Project ObjectivesQuantify sector-specific forecast-based triggers for effective anticipatory action: Define quantitative triggers for engaging in most suitable sector-specific anticipatory actions by weather pattern, lead-time, and geographic region, with occurrence probabilities and other risk metrics suitable for underwriting and decision making.Improve the platform prototype based on early user feedbackRefine and expand the current MVP of the forecast-based risk engine by incorporating insights from interviews and workshops, focusing on usability, accuracy, and applicability in real-world settings.Validate the feasibility of anticipatory insurance with insurers in priority economic sectorsTest the improved platform through scenario-based simulations and operational pilot projects in collaboration with insurance partners and clients in agriculture, transportation, construction, and leisure.Demonstrate that anticipatory insurance reduces risks and lossesUse pilot results to generate evidence that forecast-triggered financial instruments lead to cost-effective, pre-event interventions—thereby reducing economic and non-economic losses.Our TeamForesura is led by a strong, interdisciplinary founding team:Dr. Chahan M. Kropf – Principal developer of CLIMADA and lecturer at ETH ZurichDr. Evelyn Mühlhofer – Impact-based forecasting specialist at MeteoSwissDr. Victor Wattin – AI and finance practitionerDr. Maximilian Richter – Business innovation expert at Switzerland Innovation Park CentralTogether, this team combines deep scientific expertise, practical implementation know-how, and a proven track record in innovation and entrepreneurship.Role of IBSDF SupportFunding from the Innovation Booster for Sustainable Digital Finance (IBSDF) will enable Foresura to advance its MVP and validate core assumptions through user-centered prototyping. The support will focus on:Technical developmentCreate a simple free testing tool for a simple hazard (e.g. thunderstorm warning to close windows)Implement a simple GUI for customizable trigger selection with a simplified pricing scheme and cost-benefit analysis to be used in the stakeholder interviewsPurchase archived forecast data for model training purposesStakeholder needs analysis Conduct 10 stakeholder interviews and 3 sector-specific co-design workshops with farmers, and other priority sectors such as transportation, construction, and leisure depending on most promising results from interviews.Validation of commercialization pathwaysConduct interviews with insurers to build a viable commercial model and find partners for a potential joint development agreement.In addition to financial support, IBSDF offers valuable non-monetary support that is critical to Foresura’s success:Access to an interdisciplinary expert network in sustainable finance, insurance innovation, and climate risk managementConnections to insurers and financial service providers, enabling early engagement with potential implementation partnersVisibility and credibility within Switzerland’s leading innovation ecosystems, helping us build trust with key stakeholdersStrategic coaching and sparring for business model refinement, go-to-market strategy, and investor readinessTogether, this combination of funding and strategic ecosystem access positions Foresura to make anticipatory climate resilience a practical and scalable solution.Long-Term Impact: Making Resilience InvestableForesura transforms Swiss-led climate research into applied innovation with global scalability. By making anticipatory action financially accessible—even for underinsured sectors and those unfamiliar with interpreting weather data—we create a new category of actionable climate resilience.Our vision: managing risk before disasters ensue — to save resources, prevent losses, and make climate resilience insurable, investable, and accessible.

Project Idea Metadata

• Project Idea Name: Foresura - forecast-based insurance for anticipatory action
• Date: 6/10/2025 7:18:36 PM
• Administrators:
  • Evelyn Mühlhofer

Project Idea Description

Problem: Disaster Compensation Is Costly and Inefficient

The increasing frequency and severity of climate-related disasters demand a shift from reactive crisis response to proactive risk mitigation. Rising costs from disaster-related payouts are putting pressure on insurers and increasing premiums for clients. Insurers would profit from their clients engaging in damage-reducing preventive measures, but for the latter, this may not always pay off: Anticipatory action always has a cost in money and time for the customer, but since weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, those resources may simply be spent in vain. Without a strong financial mechanism to enable concrete anticipatory action and to distribute the risk of spending in vain from the individual to a larger system, inaction often prevails—leading to avoidable damages, irreplaceable losses, and greater overall costs, negatively affecting both the insurance industry and the end-customers in many crucial economic sectors on the long run. 

Our Solution: Financially Enabling Anticipatory Action

Foresura pioneers a new business opportunity for insurers: enabling financially-backed, anticipatory action in key economic sectors such as agriculture, transport, construction, and leisure, based on short to medium lead-time weather forecasts. By expanding parametric insurance logic, forecast-based weather triggers can activate predefined preventive measures—such as hail protection nets, mobile flood barriers, evacuations, or securing infrastructure— days to hours before a disaster occurs.

This approach is not only more cost-effective and sustainable than post-event compensation, but also essential for protecting lives, business continuity, and livelihoods—losses that cannot be recovered with money.

Innovation: A Forecast-to-Action Financial Platform

Foresura is developing a modular, scalable platform that transforms uncertain weather forecasts into real-time actionable decision triggers and pre-disaster financial instruments. This involves quantifying sector-specific risk trade-offs to identify most suitable anticipatory actions, translating uncertain meteorological data into concrete triggers for actions, and developing the corresponding forecast-triggered financial instruments—such as anticipatory insurance—which fund action before disaster strikes.

While anticipatory financing has shown success in humanitarian contexts, it remains almost absent in commercial, operational, and public-sector settings. Indeed, insurance and other businesses have so far focused on high-cost adaptation measures such as updating buildings to be disaster-resistant, while ignoring the opportunities of short-term anticipatory action.

By linking skilful forecasts with tailored, financially-backed response action plans, Foresura makes resilience a market-ready concept—bridging a critical gap in risk management and climate adaptation.

Scientific Basis & Processing Core Implementation 

Foresura builds on cutting-edge risk research from ETH Zurich and with this, latest state-of-the-art tools such as the open-source climate risk modeling platform CLIMADA. We combine the newest market-available high-resolution weather forecast data with sector-specific risk data and bespoke action plans in agriculture, transportation, construction, and leisure —turning forecasts into financially-backed, actionable triggers.

What sets us apart is the translation from science into application: we have already developed a first functional prototype, defined use cases with insurers and stakeholders in some of our target economic sectors, and validated initial needs through interviews.

Our work is backed by a strong academic-public-practitioner network which endorses our project such as the Weather & Climate risks chair at ETH Zurich, CGIAR (global research partnership for a food-secure future), and the United Nations University (anticipatory action expertise).

Foresura stands on a solid scientific foundation—but we are already building forward, towards market-ready impact.

Project Objectives

• Quantify sector-specific forecast-based triggers for effective anticipatory action:
  • Define quantitative triggers for engaging in most suitable sector-specific anticipatory actions by weather pattern, lead-time, and geographic region, with occurrence probabilities and other risk metrics suitable for underwriting and decision making.
• Improve the platform prototype based on early user feedback
  • Refine and expand the current MVP of the forecast-based risk engine by incorporating insights from interviews and workshops, focusing on usability, accuracy, and applicability in real-world settings.
• Validate the feasibility of anticipatory insurance with insurers in priority economic sectors
  • Test the improved platform through scenario-based simulations and operational pilot projects in collaboration with insurance partners and clients in agriculture, transportation, construction, and leisure.
• Demonstrate that anticipatory insurance reduces risks and losses
  • Use pilot results to generate evidence that forecast-triggered financial instruments lead to cost-effective, pre-event interventions—thereby reducing economic and non-economic losses.

Our Team

Foresura is led by a strong, interdisciplinary founding team:

• Dr. Chahan M. Kropf – Principal developer of CLIMADA and lecturer at ETH Zurich
• Dr. Evelyn Mühlhofer – Impact-based forecasting specialist at MeteoSwiss
• Dr. Victor Wattin – AI and finance practitioner
• Dr. Maximilian Richter – Business innovation expert at Switzerland Innovation Park Central

Together, this team combines deep scientific expertise, practical implementation know-how, and a proven track record in innovation and entrepreneurship.

Role of IBSDF Support

Funding from the Innovation Booster for Sustainable Digital Finance (IBSDF) will enable Foresura to advance its MVP and validate core assumptions through user-centered prototyping. The support will focus on:

• Technical development
  • Create a simple free testing tool for a simple hazard (e.g. thunderstorm warning to close windows)
  • Implement a simple GUI for customizable trigger selection with a simplified pricing scheme and cost-benefit analysis to be used in the stakeholder interviews
  • Purchase archived forecast data for model training purposes
• Stakeholder needs analysis 
  • Conduct 10 stakeholder interviews and 3 sector-specific co-design workshops with farmers, and other priority sectors such as transportation, construction, and leisure depending on most promising results from interviews.
• Validation of commercialization pathways
  • Conduct interviews with insurers to build a viable commercial model and find partners for a potential joint development agreement.

In addition to financial support, IBSDF offers valuable non-monetary support that is critical to Foresura’s success:

• Access to an interdisciplinary expert network in sustainable finance, insurance innovation, and climate risk management
• Connections to insurers and financial service providers, enabling early engagement with potential implementation partners
• Visibility and credibility within Switzerland’s leading innovation ecosystems, helping us build trust with key stakeholders
• Strategic coaching and sparring for business model refinement, go-to-market strategy, and investor readiness

Together, this combination of funding and strategic ecosystem access positions Foresura to make anticipatory climate resilience a practical and scalable solution.

Long-Term Impact: Making Resilience Investable

Foresura transforms Swiss-led climate research into applied innovation with global scalability. By making anticipatory action financially accessible—even for underinsured sectors and those unfamiliar with interpreting weather data—we create a new category of actionable climate resilience.

Our vision: managing risk before disasters ensue — to save resources, prevent losses, and make climate resilience insurable, investable, and accessible.

Foresura is building a scalable climate-fintech solution that transforms high-resolution weather forecasts into sector-specific anticipatory insurance products. By leveraging forecast-triggered financial instruments, we empower proactive risk reduction across underinsured sectors like agriculture, infrastructure, and transport. Our platform bridges the gap between climate intelligence and finance, turning resilience into a standardised, insurable, and investable data-driven product. With support from the Innovation Booster Sustainable Digital Finance, we aim to validate our MVP, co-develop use cases with insurers and public actors, and unlock a new asset class for sustainable risk financing.